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Contrast how commodity sectors move through their life cycle, from production to trading or consumption

CFA® Level II · Alternative Investments · Introduction to Commodities and Commodity Derivatives · L2.AI.1.b

The idea

Each commodity travels from production to consumption on its own clock, and that clock shapes price behaviour and the futures curve. Grains follow an annual planting and harvest cycle, so stocks peak after harvest and run down until the next one, producing seasonal price patterns. Livestock takes time to raise: hogs reach market in roughly six months, cattle in eighteen months to two years, so herd decisions made on today's feed prices change supply much later. Softs such as coffee grow on trees that need years to become productive. Energy is produced continuously but must be refined, transported and stored. Metals need years from discovery to output. The trap is assuming supply can respond quickly to a price change, when for most commodities it cannot.

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