Value common shares with the H-model, the two-stage DDM and the three-stage DDM, and explain the results
The idea
Two-stage value is the present value of the dividends in the high-growth period plus the discounted terminal value, where terminal value at year n is D(n+1) ÷ (r − gL). The H-model captures a linear decline in growth in closed form: V0 = D0 × (1 + gL) ÷ (r − gL) + D0 × H × (gS − gL) ÷ (r − gL), where H is half the length of the decline in years. A three-stage model forecasts early dividends explicitly, values the later stages at a future date with an H-model or constant-growth formula, and discounts that value to today. Classic mistakes are using the full period rather than half for H and discounting the terminal value for the wrong number of years.
In the app: 3 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in Discounted Dividend Valuation
- Contrast dividends, residual income and free cash flow as DCF inputs and say in which investment settings each one fits
- Work out the value of a common share with the dividend discount model (DDM) over one holding period and over several, and explain the result
- Value a common share with the Gordon growth model, explaining what that model assumes
- Value perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed rate and cannot be called
- Set out what the Gordon growth model does well and badly and argue for using it to value a firm's common shares
- Use the current share price and the Gordon growth model to back out the implied dividend growth rate, and explain it
- Work out PVGO (the present value of what future growth opportunities are worth) and the share of the leading P/E it accounts for, and explain both
- Derive justified leading and trailing P/Es from the Gordon growth model and explain what they mean
- Back out a required return from any DDM, including the H-model and the Gordon growth model
- Judge from a DDM value whether the market is pricing a stock too high, too low or fairly
- Explain the growth, transition and maturity phases a business passes through
- Explain what spreadsheet modelling, the H-model, the two-stage DDM and the three-stage DDM assume, and argue for choosing one to value a firm's shares
- Explain terminal value and the different ways of setting it in a DDM
- Explain how spreadsheet models are used to project dividends and value common shares
- Work out a firm's sustainable growth rate and explain it, showing how DuPont analysis can be used to estimate that rate