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Explain how shifts in what drives sales bear on whether sales growth can be sustained

CFA® Level II · Financial Statement Analysis · Multinational Operations · L2.FSA.3.i

The idea

Sales growth can come from volume, price, acquisitions and currency. Growth from selling more units or raising real prices in a stable market is the most sustainable. Growth from acquisitions is not organic and will not repeat without more deals, and growth from favourable currency moves can reverse at any time. Price increases in a high-inflation country may simply keep up with inflation and be offset later by currency depreciation. Companies often disclose organic growth, which removes acquisitions, disposals and currency effects, or constant currency growth, which removes currency effects only. The analyst should build forecasts on the organic component and treat the others separately. The trap is extrapolating headline growth when much of it came from a weak home currency or a one-time purchase.

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