Explain the term structure of yield volatility and how it influences the volatility of prices
The idea
Yield volatility typically varies by maturity. Short-term yields tend to be the most volatile because they respond directly to monetary policy and economic news, while long-term yields are anchored by expectations of average rates over many years. Price volatility, however, is roughly modified duration multiplied by yield volatility. A 30-year bond with duration near 17 and yield volatility of 60 basis points has far greater price risk than a two-year bond with duration near 2 and yield volatility of 95 basis points. The trap is to conclude that the most volatile yields produce the most volatile prices. Volatility structure also matters for pricing options embedded in bonds.
In the app: 1 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in The Term Structure and Interest Rate Dynamics
- Explain how the yield curve's shape, spot and forward rates, yield to maturity, and expected and realized bond returns relate to one another
- Explain how bootstrapping extracts zero-coupon (spot) rates from the par curve
- Explain what active bond managers assume about how future spot rates will evolve compared with today's forward rates
- Explain the rolling-down-the-yield-curve strategy
- Explain what the swap rate curve is, and the reasons and ways that market participants rely on it when valuing instruments
- Work out the swap spread at a given maturity and explain what it means
- Explain the short-term rate spreads that serve as gauges of credit and liquidity risk across the economy
- Explain the traditional term structure theories and set out what each one implies for forward rates and for the yield curve's shape
- Explain how to measure a bond's sensitivity to each factor that moves the yield curve, and how to use those sensitivities to manage yield curve risk
- Explain how major economic drivers feed into a view on spreads, benchmark rates and shifts in the yield curve