Show how sensitivity analysis is applied
The idea
Sensitivity analysis checks how a backtest or simulation result changes when inputs or assumptions change. Analysts vary one choice at a time, such as the look-back window, rebalancing frequency, transaction cost level, factor definition or distribution, and see whether conclusions hold. Net return after costs, for example, falls by turnover times cost per unit traded, so doubling the cost assumption for a high-turnover strategy can erase its edge. In simulation, replacing a normal distribution with a fat-tailed one shows how much tail risk depends on the model. A robust strategy performs similarly across reasonable alternatives; one whose results collapse with small changes is probably overfitted. The trap is reporting only the most favourable parameter set.
In the app: 2 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in Backtesting and Simulation
- Set out what backtesting an investment strategy aims to achieve
- Set out and contrast the stages and procedures involved when a strategy is backtested
- Interpret the metrics and charts that a strategy backtest reports
- Spot flaws in the backtest of a strategy
- Assess and interpret an analysis based on historical scenarios
- Contrast the Monte Carlo approach to simulation with the historical approach
- Explain the inputs and choices a simulation involves and interpret what it produces