Propose and defend a goals-based asset allocation for an individual investor

List each goal with its amount, horizon and required probability of success. Match each goal to a sub-portfolio module whose expected return and risk give the required probability over the horizon. The capital to set aside is the present value of the goal discounted at the module's return consistent with that probability: $1,000,000 in 10 years at 4% needs about $675,564 today. Urgent, near-term goals get conservative modules with high confidence; distant aspirational goals get growth modules with lower confidence. Any surplus capital is excess wealth, which can be allocated to further goals. A good justification checks the aggregate allocation remains efficient. The trap is discounting every goal at the same rate regardless of its required probability.