Build a positioning strategy from forward rates when the manager's rate outlook agrees with what the market implies
The idea
With no view that differs from what the curve already prices, the manager does not bet on level, slope or shape and instead positions to earn the curve's static return. Strategies include buy-and-hold at a target duration; rolling down an upward-sloping curve by holding bonds whose yields fall as they age; repo-financed carry trades that borrow short to hold higher-yielding longer bonds; long futures or receive-fixed swaps as leveraged equivalents; and selling options, such as covered calls, to collect premium. These gains depend on the curve staying roughly where it is. The trap is forgetting what forward rates mean: if forwards are realised exactly, every maturity earns the same one-period rate, and the extra return from rolldown and carry disappears.
In the app: 1 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in Yield Curve Strategies
- Explain what drives the return on a bond portfolio when benchmark yields change
- Construct a positioning strategy from forward rates when the manager expects the curve's level, slope or shape to differ from market pricing
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- Assess how a portfolio's rate sensitivity compares with its benchmark's using key rate durations
- Explain how yield curve positions are taken across more than one currency
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