Set out why one might value a stock with dividend yield or alternative price multiples and what can go wrong
The idea
Each multiple has its rationale and its drawbacks. P/E links price to earning power but fails when earnings are negative, and earnings can be volatile or managed. P/B works when earnings are negative and for companies whose assets are mostly financial, such as banks, but book value ignores many intangibles and depends on accounting choices. P/S works for loss-making companies and sales are harder to manipulate, but sales ignore the cost structure, so strong sales need not mean profit. Price to cash flow is less exposed to accrual manipulation, though simple cash flow measures ignore investment. Dividend yield is part of total return but ignores capital gains, and a high yield may signal an expected cut. The trap is using one multiple regardless of the company.
In the app: 1 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
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- Contrast comparables with forecasted fundamentals as ways of applying price multiples when valuing, and set out the economic logic behind each
- Work out a justified price multiple and explain what it means
- Work out dividend yield and alternative price multiples and explain what they mean
- Work out underlying earnings and explain them, set out ways to normalise earnings per share (EPS), and compute normalised EPS
- Explain earnings yield (E/P) and argue for its use
- Set out the fundamentals that drive dividend yield and alternative price multiples
- Use a cross-sectional regression on fundamentals to predict a P/E, explain the result, and explain where such regressions fall short
- From forecasted fundamentals, work out a stock's justified price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios and explain them
- Work out the PEG (P/E-to-growth) ratio, explain what it means and how it is used in relative valuation
- Work out terminal value for a DCF (discounted cash flow) model with several stages from price multiples and explain this use
- Judge from comparisons of multiples whether a stock is priced too high, too low or fairly
- Assess a stock with comparables and explain why fundamentals matter when applying that method
- Explain the various cash flow definitions used in multiples of price and of enterprise value (EV) and where each falls short
- Work out EV multiples, explain what they mean and assess how useful EV/EBITDA is
- Explain why valuation comparisons across borders can differ
- Explain momentum indicators and how they are used in valuation
- Explain how the median, arithmetic mean, harmonic mean and weighted harmonic mean summarise the typical level of a set of multiples